Wrong again, Falla won in four sets.
2014 Statistics
Tips: 11
Won: 6
Lost: 5
Stakes: 81
Profit: 13.45
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ReadEvent: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Roger Federer, Australian Open
Bet: Over 40.5 games
Odds: 1.80
Sportsbook: Bet Victor
Stake: 9/10
Projected profits: 7.20
This should be a great match between two players that are in great shape at this early stage of the season. Tsonga looked very solid so far at the Australian Open while Federer seems to have regained some confidence since taking Edberg as his head coach. I think this will be a thriller, most likely four long sets or maybe five.
Event: Roma vs Juventus, Italian Cup
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.06
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 7/10
Projected profits: 7.42
Tonights Coppa Italia quarter-final clash is a meeting between the two best sides in Italian football at the moment, league leaders Juventus travel to face top contenders Roma. Juve beat them 3-0 in the last league match but this one should be different as it's an one-off cup match, no second chances. I think both teams will be cautious, any conceded goal could mean exiting the competition, so I believe it will be a cagey match with at most 2 goals.
Event: Eugenie Bouchard vs Na Li, WTA Australian Open
Bet: Over 20.5 games
Odds: 2.00
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 7/10
Projected profits: 7.00
Na Li is the big favourite here, with Sharapova and Serena out of the tournament she probably already thinks she has won the Australian Open. The pressure is on her while teenager Bouchard is in great shape and full of enthusiasm. I think Na Li will win this one thanks to her superior experience but Bouchard won't give up without a good fight.
Event: Fiorentina vs Siena, Italian Cup
Bet: Fiorentina -1.5
Odds: 1.90
Sportsbook: Bet365
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.20
Fiorentina are the big favourites here against Serie B side Siena. The visitors are 14th in the second league, having a pretty bad season after getting relegated last summer. Fiorentina should win this match easily and since they will be using the backup strikers I think that they will be quite hungry for goals in order to prove their worth to the head coach.
Event: Arsenal vs Coventry, FA Cup
Bet: Arsenal -2.5
Odds: 1.95
Sportsbook: Winner Sports
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.60
Normally Arsenal wouldn't worry too much before a clash against League One side Coventry. But this time might be different because of this piece of information: they will play before a sell-out crowd at Emirates Stadium. That fact will make Wenger's players want to prove their worth by scoring as many goals as possible for the fans. Arsenal have faced Coventry in the League Cup in 2012 and that time they won 6-1, I expect a similar outcome tonight.
Event: Real Sociedad vs Elche, Primera Liga
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.81
Sportsbook: 188Bet
Stake: 9/10
Projected profits: 7.29
This is a must-win game for Real Sociedad in their battle to clinch an Europa League spot at the end of this season. There is much at stake for Elche as well as they are just above the relegation zone. Sociedad are very strong at home, won five in a row on their home ground and four of those five were matches with 3 or more goals. Their average scoring rate at home this season is 2.5 goals per game and I think they will score at least two against a weak defence tonight. On the other hand Sociedad have a shaky defence as well and Elche might exploit that. Over 2.5 goals in this game looks like a pretty good option considering those facts.
Event: Southampton vs Arsenal, Premier League
Bet: Arsenal win
Odds: 1.97
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.76
A tough match for the Premier League leaders tonight, Southampton are 9th in the league table and hoping to end Arsenal's winning streak. The Gunners have won 7 consecutive games in all competitions and are looking rock-solid both at the back and in attack. Southampton are going through a rough patch, won just one of their last five games at home and seem to have some discipline issues in the squad. Striker Pablo Osvaldo was suspended by the club after punching a team mate, the atmosphere in the dressing room seems quite heavy. Considering all those facts I think Arsenal will prevail, even though it might be a difficult match for the Gunners.
Event: Aston Villa vs West Brom, Premier League
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.93
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.44
This should be a cagey affair between Aston Villa and West Brom, there's much at stake as both sides are fighting to stay somewhere safe in the middle of the league table. West Brom are not scoring much but not conceding easily either, seven of their last eight matches ended with less than two goals scored. On the other hand Aston Villa have scored just 8 goals in their 11 matches at home this season, they are a team that is more suited to counter attacks than building up play against a visiting team. Considering all that I think we'll have a defensive match with both sides trying to keep a clean sheet, so under 2.5 goals looks like a good option.
Event: Alexandra Dulgheru vs Shuai Peng, WTA Pattaya
Bet: Peng to win 2-0
Odds: 2.10
Sportsbook: William Hill
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 8.80
Dulgheru was a great prospect a couple of years ago but now she is struggling, dropped to 157th in the world rankings. She did well to get through qualifying and advance to the second round here but now she will face a much better opponent. Peng had a good start to the year with a semi final in Shenzen, then was disappointing at Hobart and Melbourne. It's time for her to bounce back on her favourite surface, she hits with great power and I think Dulgheru, mostly a clay court player, won't be able to cope with that. I expect a straight sets victory for Peng.
Event: Richard Gasquet vs Nick Kyrgios, Davis Cup
Bet: Under 33.5 games
Odds: 1.72
Sportsbook: Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 7.20
Gasquet is the better and much more experienced player, he should win this match easily especially since it's played in France and on a clay court. Kyrgios is a young Australian player with little to no experience on clay courts, he has 4 wins and 6 losses in his career on this surface. That said, I think Gasquet will end this match in straight sets.
Event: St Etienne vs Valenciennes, French Ligue 1
Bet: St Etienne -1
Odds: 1.88
Sportsbook: Bet365
Stake: 9/10
Projected profits: 7.92
St Etienne are fourth in the league before this match, Valenciennes are 18th, so this is a must win for the home side. Valenciennes are a dangerous team but their form always went up and down this season, they pulled off a huge upset at Monaco but lost three out of their last four away games. St Etienne on the other hand are very strong at home, scored in every single home match this season and won their last four home games without conceding. I think that form will continue and St Etienne will grab another win, if it's just by one goal stakes will be returned, if it's by two goals or more then it's a winning bet.
Event: West Brom vs Liverpool + Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid
Bet: Over 2.5 goals in both games
Odds: 2.20
Sportsbook: Bet Victor
Stake: 6/10
Projected profits: 7.20
I suggest a combo bet for today, over 2.5 goals in two matches. Liverpool had over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 13 Premier League matches and considering the hot form of Suarez and Sturridge I think they will score plenty today while West Brom could well get on the score sheet too. As for Real Madrid, 9 of their last 10 away matches ended with more than 3 goals while Bilbao have scored at least 4 goals in their last 3 league matches.
Event: Jesse Huta-Galung vs Benjamin Becker, ATP Zagreb
Bet: Over 22.5 games
Odds: 2.10
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 7/10
Projected profits: 7.70
This should be a tight match between two similar players, Huta-Galung is ranked 92nd in the world, Becker is 93rd, both are good servers. Both players favour the indoor hard courts and usually serve very well so I expect at least a tie-break in this one. Huta-Galung had a good run in a challenger last week, went to semi finals, while Becker was eliminated in the second round. I expect Becker to fight hard for his points while Huta-Galung should continue his good form. I guess we'll see at least two close sets if not three.
Event: Vincent Millot vs Adrian Mannarino, ATP Montpellier
Bet: Mannarino to win 2-0
Odds: 2.15
Sportsbook: Winner Sports
Stake: 7/10
Projected profits: 8.05
Mannarino and Millot know each other pretty well, they have met last year and two years ago, both meetings on indoor hard, both won by Mannarino in easy straight sets. Millot is a mediocre player, two years older than Mannarino but never managed to break into the top 100, now he's beyond the top 200. He lost in the last qualifying round but continued as a lucky loser. Mannarino had a disappointing start to the season but I think he won't let this occasion slip away, I expect an easy win for him.
Event: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid, Copa del Rey
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.94
Sportsbook: 10Bet
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.52
Tonight's cup semi-final should be a cagey affair between the two rival clubs, considering that it's the first leg of the clash and both teams will try to keep their chances intact for the return match. Last three meetings between these two ended with less than 2.5 goals while Real Madrid's last seven cup matches were all under 2.5 goals.
Event: Dudi Sela vs Lukas Lacko, ATP Zagreb
Bet: Lacko to win
Odds: 1.91
Sportsbook: Ladbrokes
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.28
Sela is better ranked but Lacko is much better indoor, even won a tournament indoor last year. Sela beat Lacko three times before, all on hard courts, but Lacko defeated Sela indoor. Moreover, his track record indoor is much better than Sela's (40 wins 36 losses for Sela, 107 wins 58 losses for Lacko). I think the Slovakian player will prevail.
Event: Tommy Haas vs Andrey Kuznetsov, ATP Zagreb
Bet: Haas to win 2-0
Odds: 1.73
Sportsbook: Bet Victor
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 7.30
After a terrible start to the season Haas finally grabbed his first win of the year by beating Becker in three sets. His confidence should be fine now and I believe his quality will be on display today. Kuznetsov is mainly a clay-court player but he did manage to beat Sijsling yesterday. However, Sijsling had no less than 13 break points and only managed to convert two, I doubt Haas will be equally forgiving. I think the German will get a straight sets win.
Event: Tommy Haas vs Daniel Evans, ATP Zagreb
Bet: Haas to win 2-0
Odds: 1.73
Sportsbook: Bet Victor
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 7.30
Almost the same bet as yesterday and for almost exactly the same reasons. Haas is playing better and better, he was very precise and steady against Kuznetsov. Evans pulled off the upset against Kohlschreiber but the German was weak, Evans allowed eight break points but Kohlschreiber converted just two of them. Moreover, Evans had a pretty weak first serve percentage, just 55%, if he keeps that against Haas he'll be in real trouble.
Event: Bjorn Phau vs Ryan Harrison
Bet: Phau to win
Odds: 2.70
Sportsbook: 888sport
Stake: 5/10
Projected profits: 8.50
Phau is seen as the underdog here, especially because of his poor ATP ranking (358th compared to Harrison's 121st). But everything else seems in Phau's favor: he is in great shape and very confident after reaching the semi finals last week in Zagreb after beating Youzhny and Sela, he has won the only previous meeting with Harrison (also in Memphis, two years ago) and he has a better record indoor. In fact, Harrison has a negative overall record indoor and last year he lost all five matches he played on this surface! An upset is quite likely here, worth a try.
Event: Hamburg vs Bayern Munich, German Cup
Bet: Over 3.5 goals
Odds: 1.97
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 8/10
Projected profits: 7.76
Today's German Cup quarter final should be an easy one for Bayern as they are facing the weakest defence in the Bundesliga. Hamburg conceded three goals in each of their previous three matches and their confidence might be at an all-time low. Bayern will probably send in some backup players, but those can be the likes of Pizarro and Shaqiri just two name two, which are excellent players for any team in the world. I believe Hamburg will do their best to please the fans and maybe even score a goal while Bayern will not miss the chance to make a victim out of the league's weakest defence. The last three meetings between these two sides had 18 goals in them, an average of six per match!
Event: Rio Ave vs Braga, Portuguese League Cup
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.60
Sportsbook: 888sport
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 6.00
Tonight's League Cup semi final is a crucial match for both sides. Rio Ave are 8th in the league, Braga are 6th, so both would miss out on Europa League qualification if the season would end today. Advancing to the League Cup final would almost guarantee Europa League qualification since the winner would face either Porto or Benfica, two sides that are highly likely to finish first and second in the league. I expect both teams to be cautious and since both have good defences I think we won't see too many goals. Braga have conceded 1.16 goals per game on average so far while Rio Ave have an even better record, 1.05 goals conceded per game. Under 2.5 seems a good option for this game.
Event: Marin Cilic vs Andy Murray, ATP Rotterdam
Bet: Cilic +3.5 games
Odds: 1.72
Sportsbook: Bet365
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 7.20
Cilic is in great shape, he won the Zagreb tournament last week without dropping a single set and now went past Tsonga in Rotterdam. Murray is still far from his best form, so I think Cilic can beat him at this moment, but I would suggest going for the safer Asian Handicap bet as I don't see Murray thrashing the Croatian today.
Event: Simona Halep vs Agnieszka Radwanska, WTA Doha
Bet: Halep to win
Odds: 2.31
Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 6/10
Projected profits: 7.86
Radwanska is the favourite here given here better ranking and head-to-head record against Halep, 3-1. But the last meeting between the two was won by Halep last year in Rome. Moreover, after a rather sluggish start to the tournament, Halep played superbly yesterday against Errani and won 6-2 6-0 in under an hour. I Halep keeps playing like that she surely can beat Radwanska, who is a slightly more defensive player (quite similar to Errani).
Event: Getafe vs Real Madrid, Primera Liga
Bet: Real Madrid to win Half Time/Full Time
Odds: 1.78
Sportsbook: Bet Victor
Stake: 10/10
Projected profits: 7.80
Real Madrid can't afford any mistakes today as both Barca and Atletico won their matches yesterday. Getafe haven't won a match since November and their squad is pretty slim for this match as they have several important absences. It's true that Cristiano Ronaldo will not play but Real Madrid still have plenty of great players that can score anytime. I believe they will try to make things clear right away, score as much as possible in the first half and then take a breather in the second.
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